False Correlation

Posted: December 17, 2008 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

This is a great idea! I mean, we tried it before…

…and it didn’t come back to bite us, right?

The U.S. government drew all the wrong lessons from the fall in violence following the ethnic cleansing(s) in Iraq, and insist on imposing their frame on Afghanistan. The surge did not cause Iraq violence to drop. The Sons of Iraq did not cause the violence to drop. Iraq underwent ethnic cleansing and fell silent in the aftermath, but all the noise about the “surge” masked the true cause of the silence. This is correlation, not causation–post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

The last thing Afghanistan needs is more U.S. money funding more means of violence.

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Comments
  1. N. Dan Smith says:

    The surge really is an amazing propaganda piece. Add that to the “Anbar awakening” where we armed 100,000 irregulars, and we can see just how US “innovation” is helping Iraq. What is incredible is how short our memory is. The last time we armed militias in Afghanistan, the results were disastrous. Yet here we go again.

  2. dcrowe says:

    This war has been a case study in how people interpret the world in ways that flatter their self-importance. The U.S. military assumes they brought peace because they were there when violence dropped…but violence always drops when you kill or drive away enough of the other people.

    Dresden was pretty “quiet” after U.S. and RAF bombers killed so many people they lacked the manpower to bury the dead. Unless you count the weeping.

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